Reflecting on tuberculosis case notification and treatment outcomes in the Volta region of Ghana: a retrospective pool analysis of a multicentre cohort from 2013 to 2017.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a petrified condition with a huge economic and health impact on families and health systems in Ghana. Monitoring of TB programme performance indicators can provide reliable data for direct measurement of TB incidence and mortality. This study reflects on the trends of TB case notification and treatment outcomes and makes comparison among 10 districts of the Volta region of Ghana.

Methods: This was a retrospective analysis of surveillance data of a cohort of TB cases from 2013 to 2017. Trends of case notification and treatment outcomes were examined and compared. Logistic regression was used to determine the independent relationship between patients and disease characteristics and unsuccessful treatment outcomes. Odds ratios, 95% confidence intervals and -values were estimated.

Results: A gradual declining trend of case notification of all forms of TB was noticed, with an overall case notification rate (CNR) of 65 cases per 100,000 population during the period. A wide variation of case notification of TB was observed among the districts, ranging from 32 to 124 cases per 100,000 population. Similarly, treatment success rate decreased slightly from 83.1% during the first year to 80.2% in 2017, with an overall treatment success rate of 82.5% (95% CI: 81.3-83.8%). Treatment failure, death, and lost to follow up rates were 0.8% (range 0.5-1.2%), 13.5% (range 12.4-14.7%), and 3.1% (range 2.6-3.8%) respectively. The treatment success rate among districts ranged from 70.5% in South Tongu to 90.8% in Krachi West district. Returned after treatment interruption (Adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 3.62; 95% CI: 1.66-7.91;  < 0.001) and TB/HIV co-infection (AOR: 1.94; 95% CI: 1.57-2.40;  < 0.001) predicts poor treatment outcomes.

Conclusion: Over the past five years, TB case notification and successful treatment outcomes did not significantly improve. Wide district variations in CNR was observed. The overall treatment success rate observed in this study is below the target of > 90% set by the World Health Organization's (WHO) end TB strategy. Additionally, patients who returned to continue treatment after interruption and those who were co-infected with HIV strongly predict unsuccessful treatment outcomes. Sustained interventions to prevent treatment interruptions and improved management of co-morbidities can enhance treatment outcomes, as required to achieve the elimination goal.