Cancers in the Central Maghreb: epidemiology from 1990 to 2017 and trends in 2040.

Objective: To describe the epidemiology of cancers in terms of global burden of disease, incidence, prevalence and typology in the three Central Maghreb countries from 1990 to 2017, as well as their trends from 2017 to 2040.

Methods: This is a descriptive and predictive study of the epidemiology of cancers in the Central Maghreb (Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco) from 1990 to 2040. The epidemiological data: incidence, prevalence, specific mortality rate and Disability Adjusted Life Years were collected via the Global Burden of Disease Database created by the Institute of Heath Metrics and Evaluation. These parameters were expressed in terms per 100,000 inhabitants.

Results: In 2017 and for the three Central Maghreb countries, cancers represented the second leading cause of death, with an overall specific mortality rate of 69/100,000 and an overall incidence rate of 116/100,000 inhabitants. The Disability Adjusted Life Years rate varied from 1516/100,000 in Algeria to 1992/100,000 in Morocco. In the three Central Maghreb countries and during the year 2017, lung cancer was the first cancer in terms of mortality, regardless of age and sex, followed by colorectal cancer in Tunisia and breast cancer in Algeria and Morocco. These three cancers will remain in 2040 the most important in terms of mortality rate with lung cancer topping the list in Tunisia and Morocco with respective mortality rates of 30 and 16/100,000.

Conclusion: Cancers are currently, and in the next two decades, an important component of the GlobalBurden of Disease in Central Maghreb countries. The typology is dominated by lung, breast and colorectal cancers. The establishment of a Maghreb cancer registry would be a fundamental component of the Maghreb cancer plan.