Incidence and relative risk of renal replacement therapy in people with and without diabetes between 2002 and 2016 in a German region.

Aims/hypothesis: Data on trends of end-stage renal disease among people with diabetes are lacking. We analysed the incidence of end-stage renal disease, defined as renal replacement therapy, among people with and without diabetes, and the corresponding relative risk. Moreover, we investigated time trends for the period 2002-2016.

Methods: In this retrospective population-based study we analysed data from one dialysis centre of a region in Germany covering a population of about 310,000 inhabitants. We estimated the age- and sex-standardised incidence rates for chronic renal replacement therapy among adults with and without diabetes and the corresponding relative risks. The time trend was analysed using Poisson regression models.

Results: Between 2002 and 2016, 1107 people (61.2% male; mean age 71.6 years; 48.7% with diabetes) had a first renal replacement therapy. During the study period, the incidence rate in the population with diabetes varied from 93.6 (95% CI 50.4, 136.7) in 2002 to 140.5 (95% CI 80.6, 200.4) in 2016 per 100,000 person-years. In the population without diabetes the incidence rate was substantially lower and reached 17.3 (95% CI 10.9, 23.6) in 2002 and 24.6 (95% CI 17.5, 31.7) in 2009. The relative risk comparing people with and without diabetes was 3.57 (95% CI 3.09, 4.13). No significant change in the incidence rates was found during the observation period, either in the population with or in the population without diabetes, and thus the relative risk also remained constant.

Conclusions/interpretation: People with diabetes have a higher risk of needing renal replacement therapy than those without diabetes, a fact that remained constant over a time period of 15 years.