Is there a pre-retrieval serum human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) threshold level for prediction of subsequent retrieval outcomes and pregnancy in fresh ICSI cycles?

Modern ICSI (intracytoplasmic sperm injection) cycles' outcomes are difficult to predict. Whether human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) or luteinizing hormone (LH) serum levels 24 h prior to oocyte retrieval are correlated with retrieval and subsequent cycle results is unclear. An observational historic cohort study of 645 fresh ICSI cycles was conducted. After controlled oocyte stimulation, and 10-12 h after a self-administered trigger, serum levels of hCG (hCG trigger  = 563) and LH (GnRHa trigger  = 82) were measured. Correlations between pre-retrieval hormone levels and cycle results were assessed. No correlation ( > .12) was found between serum pre-retrieval hCG levels or LH levels (in GnRHa-triggered cycles) and total oocytes, M2, M1 + M2 or oocyte maturity rates (OMR) for any of the stimulation protocols. ROC (receiver operator curve) analysis for fertilization rates showed a possible cutoff for LH levels. Pregnancy rates (PR) were higher in rising hCG groups; a cutoff of 117 IU/L was associated with an increase in PR (30.9% to 45.6%) and a moderate sensitivity and specificity (60.6% and 55.0%). However, HCG was not predictive of pregnancy in a logistic regression model. We conclude that preretrieval hCG serum levels are not useful for pre-retrieval estimation of aspiration results but might have a role in prediction of pregnancy.