Land use dynamics and future scenarios of the Rio Doce State Park buffer zone, Minas Gerais, Brazil.

It is necessary to understand the importance of landscapes that comprise the environment across a broad range of time and space and that each part of these landscapes responds to changes in environmental factors and land use. This study employs a multiscale modeling approach in the Rio Doce State Park (PERD), located in Minas Gerais, Brazil, based on a previous study on land use change in this region over the last 30 years (1985-2015), with an aim of predicting possible scenarios for the next 15 years (2015-2030). The results indicate that the municipalities and buffer zones within the PERD will suffer from increased human disturbance in all four land use types present in the region (Urban, Agriculture, Pasture, and Forestry). Correspondingly, areas of natural environment (Forest and Water) will shrink due to an increase in forest fragmentation, causing the loss of permanent ecological reserves, thereby endangering the biodiversity of these areas. Cooperation between the local community and private companies is therefore necessary to improve regional environmental conservation, encourage advanced sustainable development, and improve the quality of life for residents within each municipality near the State Park.