Prognostic nomogram integrated baseline serum lipids for patients with non-esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Background: Serum lipids have been documented as prognostic biomarkers in several types of cancer, however the prognostic value of serum lipids in non-esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (non-ESCC) is not clear. The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic roles of serum lipids in non-ESCC and to establish a novel effective nomogram for overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with non-ESCC.

Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the prognostic values of pretreatment serum lipids, including total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), apolipoproteinA-I (ApoAI), and apolipoprotein B (ApoB) and three lipid derivatives: atherogenic index [AI: (TC-HDL-C)/HDL-C], THR (TG/HDL-C) and LHR (LDL-C/HDL-C) in non-ESCC patients. Prognostic factors predictive of OS and DFS were determined by univariate and cox hazards analysis, and prognostic nomograms were established. The predictive power of independent prognostic factors was compared adopting time-dependent ROC. Comparisons between the nomograms and traditional TNM staging systems were evaluated using the C-index and decision curve analysis.

Results: A total of 180 non-ESCC patients were recruited in this prospective study between January 2006 and December 2016. Four (cancer type, TNM stage, TC, and TG) and five (cancer type, TNM stage, TC, TG, and LDL-C) independent prognostic factors were chosen to generate the nomogram for OS and DFS, respectively. Our results showed that the area under curves (AUCs) of cancer type and TG were higher than TNM stage for OS. For DFS, however, AUCs of cancer type, TG and LDL-C were higher than the TNM stage. The C-index of the nomogram for predicting the OS was 0.69, which was significantly higher than that of TNM stage (0.58, P=0.005). In addition, for DFS, the C-index of the nomogram was significantly higher than that of the TNM stage (0.70 0.60, P=0.001). Furthermore, decision curve analysis showed that the predictive accuracy of the prognostic nomogram for OS and DFS were both higher than the TNM stage.

Conclusions: Our study demonstrated that pretreatment of serum lipids based on the prognostic nomogram could be applied to predict the OS and DFS in non-ESCC patients.