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Computational Physics Laboratory, Tampere University, P.O. Box 600, FI-33014 Tampere, Finland.

The depinning transition critical point is manifested as power-law distributed avalanches exhibited by slowly driven elastic interfaces in quenched random media. Here we show that since avalanches with different starting heights relative to the mean interface height or different initial local interface curvatures experience different excess driving forces due to elasticity, avalanches close to the "global" critical point of non-mean-field systems can be separated into populations of subcritical, critical, and supercritical ones. The asymmetric interface height distribution results in an excess of supercritical avalanches, manifested as a "bump" in the avalanche size distribution cutoff.

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Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A

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National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138.

We use natality microdata covering the universe of US. births for 2015 to 2021 and California births from 2015 through February 2023 to examine childbearing responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that 60% of the 2020 decline in US fertility rates was driven by sharp reductions in births to foreign-born mothers although births to this group comprised only 22% of all US births in 2019.

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