Social and spatial inequalities in allostatic load among adults in China: a multilevel longitudinal study.

Objectives: To investigate potential geographical and socioeconomic patterning of allostatic load (AL) in China.

Design: Multilevel longitudinal study of the 2010 Chronic Disease Risk Factor Surveillance linked to the National Death Surveillance up to 31 December 2015.

Setting: All 31 provinces in China, not including Hong Kong, Macao or Taiwan.

Participants: 96 466 ≥ 18 years old (women=54.3%).

Exposures: Person-level educational attainment and mean years of education in counties.

Outcome: AL was measured using clinical guidelines for nine biomarkers: body mass index; waist circumference; systolic blood pressure; diastolic blood pressure; fasting blood glucose; total cholesterol; triglycerides; high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; low-density lipoprotein cholesterol.

Results: Multilevel logistic regressions adjusted for sex, age, marital status, person-level education, county mean years of education and urban/rural reported ORs of 1.22 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.38) for 5-year all-cause mortality (n=3284) and 1.20 (1.04-1.37) for deaths from non-communicable diseases (n=2891) among people in AL quintile 5 (high) compared with quintile 1 (low). The median rate ratio estimated from unadjusted multilevel negative binomial regression showed AL clustered geographically (province=1.14; county=1.12; town=1.11; village=1.14). After adjusting for aforementioned confounders, AL remained higher with age (rate ratio 1.02, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.02), higher in women compared with men (1.17, 1.15 to 1.19), lower among singletons (0.83, 0.81 to 0.85) and widowers (0.96, 0.94 to 0.98). AL was lower among people with university-level compared with no education (0.92, 0.89 to 0.96), but higher in counties with higher mean education years (1.03, 1.01 to 1.05). A two-way interaction suggested AL was higher (1.04, 1.02 to 1.06) among those with university-level compared with no education within counties with higher mean years of education. Similar results were observed for alternative constructions of AL using 75th and 80th percentile cut-points.

Conclusions: AL in China is patterned geographically. The degree of association between AL and person-level education seems to be dependent on area-level education, which may be a proxy for other contextual factors that warrant investigation.