Observational records show that occurrences of the negative polarity of the Southern Annular Mode (low SAM) is significantly linked to El Niño during austral spring and summer, potentially providing long-lead predictability of the SAM and its associated surface climate conditions. In this study, we explore how this linkage may change under a scenario of a continuation of the ocean temperature trends that have been observed over the past 60 years, which are plausibly forced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. We generated coupled model seasonal forecasts for three recent extreme El Niño events by initialising the forecasts with observed ocean anomalies of 1 September 1982, 1997 and 2015 added into (1) the current ocean mean state and into (2) the ocean mean state updated to include double the recent ocean temperature trends. We show that the strength of extreme El Niño is reduced with the warmer ocean mean state as a result of reduced thermocline feedback and weakened rainfall-wind-sea surface temperature coupling over the tropical eastern Pacific. The El Niño-low SAM relationship also weakens, implying the possibility of reduced long-lead predictability of the SAM and associated surface climate impacts in the future.
Download full-text PDF |
Source |
|---|---|
| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6864090 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-53371-3 | DOI Listing |
Publication Analysis
Top Keywords
Similar Publications
Past and future effects of climate on the metapopulation dynamics of a Northeast Atlantic seabird across two centuries.
Ecol Lett
December 2024
School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
Forecasting population responses to rapidly changing marine ecosystems requires mechanistic models integrating complex demographic processes, fitted to long time series, across large spatial scales. We used a Bayesian metapopulation model fit to colony census data and climatic covariates spanning 1900-2100 for all Northeast Atlantic colonies of an exemplar seabird, the Northern gannet (Morus bassanus) to investigate metapopulation dynamics under two climate scenarios. Fecundity varied non-linearly with near-surface air temperature and recruitment was depressed by sea surface temperature.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFEnvironmental influence on single methylation variation sites (SMVs) in the large yellow croaker (Larimichthys crocea): identification and correlation analysis.
Mol Biol Rep
December 2024
National Engineering Research Center of Marine Facilities Aquaculture, College of Fisheries, Zhejiang Ocean University, No. 1 Haida South Road, Dinghai District, Zhoushan, 316022, Zhejiang Province, China.
Background: Larimichthys crocea is an important aquaculture species along the southeastern coast of China, with diverse environment and farming practices since artificial breeding, these different aquatic habitats are subject to significant variations in environmental factors that may involve modulation of gene expression through epigenetic mechanisms to enable species to survive and reproduce.
Methods And Results: This study aimed to identify methylation variation sites (SMVs) in different sequence contexts (CG, CHG, and CHH) within populations of L. crocea in different habitats.
Predicting the abundance of Lepeophtheirus salmonis in the Bay of Fundy, New Brunswick.
J Aquat Anim Health
December 2024
Department of Health Management and Centre for Veterinary Epidemiological Research, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, Canada.
Objective: The primary objective was to construct a time series model for the abundance of the adult female (AF) sea lice Lepeophtheirus salmonis in Atlantic Salmon Salmo salar farms in the Bay of Fundy, New Brunswick, Canada, for the period 2016-2021 and to illustrate its short-term predictive capabilities.
Methods: Sea lice are routinely counted for monitoring purposes, and these data are recorded in the Fish-iTrends database. A multivariable autoregressive linear mixed-effects model (second-order autoregressive structure) was generated with the outcome of the abundance of AF sea lice and included treatments, infestation pressures (a measure that represents the dose of exposure of sea louse parasitic stages to potential fish hosts) within sites (internal) and among sites (external), and other predictors.
Analyzing trend and heatwaves of 15 Years of Sea Surface Temperature Variations along the Italian Adriatic Coast.
Vet Ital
December 2024
Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise "G. Caporale", Teramo, Italy.
Water temperature is a vital parameter impacting the growth and survival of aquatic life. Using satellite-derived infrared data, this study analysed the trend of sea surface temperature (SST) from 2008 to 2022 of the Adriatic coastal waters of Italian regions. The "Mediterranean Sea High Resolution and Ultra High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Analysis" product collected from the Copernicus Marine Service of European Copernicus programme was used, as a good compromise among spatial accuracy, temporal frequency and coverage.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFRectification effects of regional air-sea interactions over western boundary current on large-scale sea surface temperature and extra-tropical storm tracks.
Sci Rep
December 2024
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO, 80305, USA.
The warm Western Boundary Currents (WBCs) and their zonal extensions are persistent, deep, strong and narrow oceanic currents. They are known to anchor and energize the Extra-Tropical storm tracks by frontal thermal air-sea interactions. However, even in the latest generation of climate models, WBCs are characterized by large biases, and both the present storm-track activity and its recent intensification are poorly estimated.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFWant AI Summaries of new PubMed Abstracts delivered to your In-box?
Enter search terms and have AI summaries delivered each week - change queries or unsubscribe any time!