Incidence and risk factors for recurrent cardiovascular disease in middle-eastern adults: a retrospective study.

Background: Individuals with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) and risk factors such as age, smoking, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus are at an increased risk of recurrent cardiovascular events and death. The incidence rate of recurrent CVD events varies between countries and populations. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has one of the highest age-standardized death rates for CVD worldwide. The aim of our study was to estimate the incidence rates and determine the predictors of recurrent CVD events among UAE nationals.

Methods: We investigated an outpatient-based cohort of patients with a history of CVD visiting Tawam Hospital between April 1, 2008 and December 31, 2008. They were followed-up until July 31, 2018. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to determine the association between major CVD risk factors and the risk of CVD recurrence.

Results: A total of 216 patients (167 males, 49 females) with a history of CVD were included. They were followed for a median (interquartile range) of 8.1 (5.5-9.3) years, with a total of 1184 patient-years of follow-up. The overall incidence rate of recurrent CVD events was 92.1 per 1000 patient-years. The 8-year cumulative incidence was 73.7%. Age, female sex, and diabetes mellitus were significant predictors of recurrent CVD events, where females had a 1.96 times higher risk of recurrent CVD events than males.

Conclusion: Significant predictors of recurrent CVD events are older age, female sex, and diabetes mellitus. The incidence rate of recurrent CVD events was 92.1 per 1000 patient-years. Preventive measures, based on international guidelines for CVD management, may improve CVD morbidity and mortality in the UAE population.