A new method of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions estimation at the provincial-level: A case study of Shandong Province, China.

The accuracy of carbon dioxide (CO) emissions at the provincial-level is urgently needed for China to peak CO emission and implement a carbon reduction plan. However, the current estimation methods have some drawbacks, such as not meeting China's situation, data obsolescence, and relatively high uncertainty. Moreover, there are large differences in estimated results among previous studies. To address these problems, this paper proposes a new provincial-level energy-related CO emission estimation method refer to methods at different levels in China and abroad. We re-divide the energy involved in a province based on energy flow and consumption-based responsibility and propose an accounting method for calculating provincial-level CO emission factors, which provides clear cross-provincial emission allocation and accurate provincial-level emission estimation. By taking Shandong Province as an example, we calculate the provincial-level CO emission factors and obtain the CO emissions from 2000 to 2016. Furthermore, the reasons for the large gaps between calculated CO emissions in Shandong are further quantitatively analyzed from the perspective of the method and data selection. The results indicate that although different methods greatly influence the estimation results, the gaps that arise from different selections of calculation scope, energy classification, activity data and CO emission factor within a method also require attention. Finally, some recommendations are proposed when making CO emission calculations or comparisons.