Background: In the Netherlands, the prevalence of intestinal extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-E) carriage in community-dwelling subjects is ~5%. Little is known about the dynamics of ESBL-E carriage.
Methods: In a nationwide, population-based study (2014-2016) with 4177 community-dwelling subjects, fecal samples from 656 subjects were collected after 1 (time point [T] = 1) and 6 (T = 2) months. The growth of ESBL-E was quantified and a whole-genome sequence analysis was performed. Subjects were categorized as either an incidental, short-term, or long-term carrier or as a noncarrier. Risk factors were determined by random forest models and logistic regression. The transmissibility and duration of ESBL-E carriage was quantified using a transmission model, which also incorporated previous study data.
Results: Out of 656 participants, 96 were ESBL-E carriers at T = 0. Of these, 66 (10.1%) subjects were incidental carriers, 22 (3.3%) were short-term carriers, and 38 (5.8%) were long-term carriers; the remaining 530 (80.8%) were noncarriers. The risk factors for long-term carriage were travelling to Asia, swimming in a sea/ocean, and not changing the kitchen towel daily. The log-transformed colony forming units ratio at T = 0 was predictive for ESBL-E carriage at T = 1 (odds ratio [OR], 1.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-1.6) and T = 2 (OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.4). Model simulations revealed a median decolonization rate of 2.83/year, an average duration of carriage of 0.35 years, and an acquisition rate of 0.34/year. The trend of the acquisition rate during the study period was close to 0.
Conclusions: The risk factors for long-term ESBL-E carriage were travel- and hygiene-related. The dynamics of ESBL-E carriage in the general Dutch population are characterized by balancing decolonization and acquisition rates.
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