Background: We aimed to forecast the number of unidentified and newly acquired HIV-infected individuals each year and to estimate the effectiveness of government prevention and control programs in China.
Methods: Dynamic and stochastic models were established based on officially published data regarding the four main modes of transmission: male homosexual sexual behavior, heterosexual sexual behavior, injection drug use (IDU) and plasma donation. Finally, we performed sensitivity analyses on model parameters.
Results: Nationally, by December 2016, approximately 280 790 individuals were estimated to have an unidentified HIV infection, with transmission via male homosexual sexual behavior (n = 100 710), heterosexual sexual behavior (n = 174 310), IDU (n = 5 620) and plasma donation (n = 150). Moreover, 196 970 newly acquired HIV-infected individuals were expected in 2016, via male homosexual sexual behavior (n = 78 610), heterosexual sexual behavior (n = 116,540), IDU (n = 1820), and plasma donation (n < 2).
Conclusions: Our results show that HIV transmission via IDU and plasma donation has been effectively controlled; transmission via heterosexual sexual contact is being somewhat controlled; however, transmission via male homosexual sexual contact is not controlled. Hence, China should strengthen efforts aimed at control of unsafe sexual behaviors.
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