CLINICAL UTILITY OF RISK SCORES IN VARICEAL BLEEDING.

Background: Variceal bleeding remains important cause of upper gastrointestinal bleed. Various risk scores are used in risk stratification for non-variceal bleed. Their utility in variceal bleeding patients is not clear. This study aims to compare probability of these scores in predicting various outcomes in same population.

Objective: This study aims to compare probability of these scores in predicting various outcomes in same population. To study characteristics and validate AIMS65, Rockall, Glasgow Blatchford score(GBS), Progetto Nazionale Emorragia Digestiva (PNED) score in variceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleed (UGIB) patients for predicting various outcomes in our population.

Methods: Three hundred subjects with UGIB were screened prospectively. Of these 141 patients with variceal bleeding were assessed with clinical, blood investigations and endoscopy and risk scores were calculated and compared to non-variceal cases. All cases were followed up for 30 days for mortality, rebleeding, requirement of blood transfusion and need of radiological or surgical intervention.

Results: Variceal bleeding (141) was more common than non variceal (134) and 25 had negative endoscopy. In variceal group, cirrhosis (85%) was most common etiology. Distribution of age and sex were similar in both groups. Presence of coffee coloured vomitus (P=0.002), painless bleed (P=0.001), edema (P=0.001), ascites (P=0.001), hemoglobin <7.5 gms (P<0.001), pH<7.35 (P<0.001), serum bicarbonate level <17.6 mmol/L (P<0.001), serum albumin<2.75 gms% (P<0.001), platelet count <1.2 lacs/µL (P<0.001), high INR 1.35 (P<0.001), BUN >25mmol/L (P<0.001), and ASA status (P<0.001), high lactate >2.85 mmol/L (P=0.001) were significant. However, no factor was found significant on multivariate analysis. Rockall was found to be significant in predicting mortality and rebleed. AIMS65 was also significant in predicting mortality. GBS was significant in predicting blood transfusion and need of intervention. PNED score was significant in all events except mortality.

Conclusion: All four scores had lower predictive potential in predicting events in variceal bleed. However, AIMS65 & Rockall score were significant in predicting mortality, while GBS in predicting need of transfusion and intervention. PNED score was significant in all events except mortality.