Incidence rate and risk factors for radiographic hip osteoarthritis in Japanese men and women: a 10-year follow-up of the ROAD study.

Objective: To investigate the incidence and progression rate of radiographic hip osteoarthritis (OA) and its risk factors in Japanese men and women using a large-scale population of a nationwide cohort study, Research on Osteoarthritis/osteoporosis Against Disability (ROAD).

Methods: From the baseline survey of the ROAD study, 2,975 participants (1,043 men and 1,932 women) aged 23-94 years (mean, 70.2 years) living in urban, mountainous, and coastal communities were followed up with hip radiography at 3, 7, and 10 years (mean follow-up, 7.1 years). Radiographs were scored using the Kellgren/Lawrence (K/L) grading system, and radiographic hip OA was defined as K/L ≥ 2. The incidence and progression rate of hip OA were examined. Acetabular dysplasia was defined as a central-edge angle <20°. Cox's proportional hazard model was used to assess risk factors for incident and progressive radiographic hip OA.

Results: The incidence rate of radiographic hip OA was 5.6/1,000 person-years and 8.4/1,000 person-years in men and women, respectively. The progression rate of hip OA was 2.2/1,000 person-years and 6.0/1,000 person-years in men and women, respectively. The significant risk factors for incident hip OA were age, obesity, and acetabular dysplasia at baseline (hazard risk [HR] 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.08; 1.78, 1.10-2.75; 2.06, 1.30-3.17, respectively). The significant risk factors for progressive hip OA were baseline hip pain and acetabular dysplasia (HR 5.68, 95%CI 1.07-22.61; 14.78, 3.66-56.06, respectively).

Conclusion: Continued longitudinal surveys of the ROAD study will contribute to knowledge about and potential prevention of incident and progressive hip OA.