Investigating the Current and Future Co-Occurrence of and in Europe through Ecological Modelling and Remote Sensing Data Analysis.

The common ragweed has spread throughout Europe since the 1800s, infesting croplands and causing severe allergic reactions. Recently, the ragweed leaf beetle was found in Italy and Switzerland; considering that it feeds primarily on in its invaded ranges, some projects started biological control of this invasive plant through the adventive beetle. In this context of a 'double' invasion, we assessed the influence of climate change on the spread of these alien species through ecological niche modelling. Considering that mainly lives in agricultural and urbanized areas, we refined the models using satellite remote-sensing data; we also assessed the co-occurrence of the two species in these patches. is predicted to expand more than in the future, with the medium and high classes of suitability of the former increasing more than the latter, resulting in lower efficacy for to potentially control in agricultural and urbanized patches. Although a future assessment was performed through the 2018 land-cover data, the predictions we propose are intended to be a starting point for future assessments, considering that the possibility of a shrinkage of target patches is unlikely to occur.