Intended place of residence in old age of internal migrants aged 15-64 years: a citywide cross-sectional study in Shanghai, China.

Objectives: To explore the intentions of working-age internal migrants concerning their place of residence in old age and the relevant influencing factors.

Method: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in the 17 districts of Shanghai, China in 2013. Through multi-stage stratified sampling with probability proportional to size, 7968 internal migrants (aged 15-64 years) were selected and interviewed individually face to face. The primary outcome concerned the intended place of residence in old age of internal migrants living in Shanghai. Information was collected on demographic characteristics, health insurance, economic condition and participation in social activities. Multinomial logistic regression was performed to analyse the factors influencing migrants' intentions concerning their place of residence in old age.

Results: A total of 7927 working-age migrants with complete data were analysed. Of these, 57.0% intended to live in their hometown in old age, 17.7% planned to remain in Shanghai and 25.3% were undecided. Those respondents who were male, less educated, from rural areas or Western China, living in rental houses or who had left family members behind in their hometowns were more likely to choose their hometown as their intended residence in old age (p<0.05). Engagement in business, longer residence duration, possession of social insurance and participation in social activities in Shanghai were identified as possible motivators for migrants who intended to remain in Shanghai in old age (p<0.05).

Conclusions: Most of the migrants expressed an intention to remigrate to their hometowns in old age. Education, economic capacity and social insurance influenced internal migrants in their decision. Relevant authorities should monitor the remigration pattern of ageing migrants, strengthen the senior care system and prepare health service resources that are more adequate, especially in the provinces or cities whence the migrants came.