Early Warning Models to Estimate the 30-Day Mortality Risk After Stent Placement for Patients with Malignant Biliary Obstruction.

Purpose: To develop, validate, and compare early warning models of the 30-day mortality risk for patients with malignant biliary obstruction (MBO) undergoing percutaneous transhepatic biliary stent placement (PTBS).

Materials And Methods: Between January 2013 and October 2018, this multicenter retrospective study included 299 patients with MBOs who underwent PTBS. The training set consisted of 166 patients from four cohorts, and another two independent cohorts were allocated as external validation sets A and B with 75 patients and 58 patients, respectively. A logistic model and an artificial neural network (ANN) model were developed to predict the risk of 30-day mortality after PTBS. The predictive performance of these two models was validated internally and externally.

Results: The ANN model had higher values of area under the curve than the logistic model in the training set (0.819 vs 0.797), especially in the validation sets A (0.802 vs 0.714) and B (0.732 vs 0.568). Both models had high accuracy in the three sets (75.9-83.1%). Along with a high specificity, the ANN model improved the sensitivity. The net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement also demonstrated that the ANN model led to improvements in predictive ability compared with the logistic model.

Conclusions: Early warning models were proposed to predict the risk of 30-day mortality after PTBS in patients with MBO. The ANN model has higher accuracy and better generalizability than the logistic model.