Trends in Attempts to Quit Smoking in England Since 2007: A Time Series Analysis of a Range of Population-Level Influences.

Aim: To quantify population-level associations between quit attempts and factors that have varied across 2007-2017 in England.

Methods: Data from 51 867 past-year smokers participating in the Smoking Toolkit Study (a monthly cross-sectional survey of individuals aged 16+) were aggregated over an 11-year period. Time series analysis was undertaken using ARIMAX modeling. The input series were: (1) prevalence of smoking reduction using (a) e-cigarettes and (b) nicotine replacement therapy; (2) prevalence of roll-your-own tobacco use; (3) prevalence of (a) smoking and (b) non-daily smoking; (4) mass media expenditure; (5) average expenditure on smoking; (6) characteristics in the form of (a) prevalence of high motivation to quit, (b) average age, (c) proportion from lower social grades, and (d) average number of cigarettes smoked; and (7) implementation of tobacco control policies.

Results: There was a decline in the prevalence of quit attempts from 44.6% to 33.8% over the study period. The partial point-of-sale ban was associated with a temporary increase in quit attempt prevalence (Badjusted = 0.224%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.061 to 0.388). Quit attempts were positively associated with the prevalence of high motivation to quit (Badjusted = 0.165%;95% CI 0.048 to 0.282) and negatively associated with the mean age of smokers (Badjusted = -1.351%; 95% CI -2.168 to -0.534). All other associations were nonsignificant.

Conclusion: Increases in the prevalence of high motivation to quit was associated with higher prevalence of attempts to quit smoking, while an increase in the mean age of smokers was associated with lower prevalence. The introduction of the partial point-of-sale ban appeared to have a temporary positive impact.

Implications: This study provides insight into how monthly changes in a wide range of population-level factors are associated with changes in quit attempts over an extended time period in a country with a strong tobacco control climate. The findings suggest a need for intervention or policy to stimulate quit attempts in older smokers. Otherwise, increases in the mean age of a smokers appears likely to undermine wider efforts to promote quit attempts in a population.