Clinical and epidemiological indicators and spatial analysis of leprosy cases in patients under 15 years old in an endemic area of Northeast Brazil: an ecological and time series study.

Objective: This study aimed to analyse the clinical and epidemiological indicators, temporal trends and the spatial distribution of leprosy in patients under 15 years old in an endemic area of Northeast Brazil.

Design: Regional surveillance study of all reported cases.

Setting: State of Sergipe, endemic area of Northeast Brazil.

Methods: An ecological and time series study was conducted, based on secondary data reported by the Brazilian Information System on Notifiable Diseases for leprosy cases diagnosed in Sergipe state (2002-2015). The analysis of temporal trends was performed using the Joinpoint Regression Programme through Poisson regression. We performed spatial analysis by Kernel estimator and Moran index.

Results: The incidence rate was reduced from 6.29 to 3.78 cases per 100 000 inhabitants in 2002 and 2015, respectively. However, Sergipe was still classified as highly endemicity in 2015. The mean number of household contacts (HHC) examined was significantly lower than those registered. Clinical data indicated that 21.4% of the patients developed leprosy reactions, and 31.3% presented with some physical disability in the multibacillary groups. Patients diagnosed by examination within the HHC presented better indicators, such as lower percentage of leprosy reaction and physical disability. Spatial analysis showed the most risk areas distributed on the northeast and cities around the capital, Aracaju.

Conclusion: The data indicate that there is a persistence of active transmission and a delay in disease detection, following a pattern of high endemicity in many municipalities. The early detection by HHC examination is important to stop transmission and also to detect the cases in a less severe state.