Prediction model of compensation for contralateral kidney after living-donor donation.

Background: Compensation of contralateral kidney function after living-donor kidney donation is well known, and many predictive factors have been proposed. However, no prediction model has been proposed. This study was performed to establish a tool with which to estimate the degree of compensation of the contralateral kidney after living-donor kidney donation.

Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 133 living donors for renal transplantation in our institution. We defined a favorable compensation as a post-donation estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at 1 year (calculated by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation) of > 60% of the pre-donation eGFR. We analyzed the living donors' clinical characteristics and outcomes.

Results: The median (range) donor age was 59 (24-79) years, median (range) body mass index was 22.9 (16.8-32.7) kg/m, and median (range) body surface area was 1.6 (1.3-2.0) m. All donors were Japanese, and 73% of the donors were biologically related. The median (range) donor pre-donation eGFR was 108.7 (82-144) ml/min/1.73 m, and the median (range) post-donation eGFR at 1 year was 86.9 (43-143) ml/min/1.73 m. Eighty-six percent of donors had compensatory hypertrophy. In the univariate analysis, age, female sex, history of hypertension, body surface area, and pre-donation eGFR were significantly associated with hypertrophy (p < 0.05). In the multivariate analysis, age, female sex, history of hypertension, and ratio of the remnant kidney volume to body weight were significantly associated with hypertrophy (p < 0.05). Based on these results, we created a compensation prediction score (CPS). The median (range) CPS was 8.7 (1.1-17.4). Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed strong diagnostic accuracy for predicting favorable compensation (area under the curve, 0.958; 95% confidence interval, 0.925-0.991, p < 0.001). The optimal cut-off value of the CPS was 5.0 (sensitivity, 92.0%; specificity, 89.5%). The CPS had a strong positive correlation with the post-donation eGFR (R = 0.797, p < 0.001).

Conclusion: The CPS might be useful tool with which to predict a favorable compensation of the contralateral kidney and remnant kidney function. If the CPS is low, careful management and follow-up might be necessary. Further investigations are needed to validate these findings in larger populations.