Carotid ultrasound investigation as a prognostic tool for patients with diabetes mellitus.

Background: Experimental and clinical data indicate a major influence of diabetes on atherogenesis. We aimed to assess whether the effect of diabetes on long-term mortality in asymptomatic patient with carotid stenosis is contingent upon the degree of the carotid atherosclerotic burden.

Methods: 1065 patients with neurological asymptomatic carotid atherosclerosis as evaluated by duplex sonography were prospectively followed for cause-specific mortality.

Results: During a median of 11.8 years, a total of 549 deaths, including 362 cardiovascular deaths, were recorded. Diabetes and glycohemoglobin A1c (Hba1c) levels were significantly associated with mortality. Diabetes displayed an independent risk for all-cause (adjusted HR 1.62; 95% CI 1.35-1.94) and cardiovascular death (adjusted HR 1.75, 95% CI 1.40-2.19). The adjusted hazard ratio per increase of 1% of Hba1c levels was 1.21 (P < 0.01) for all-cause and 1.31 (P < 0.01) for cardiovascular mortality, respectively. Patients with diabetes mellitus and a higher degree of carotid stenosis and were at great risk of adverse outcome. Only 21% of the asymptomatic diabetic patients with carotid narrowing over 50% survived, whereas 62% of the patients without diabetes and with carotid atherosclerosis below 50% were still alive after 12-years of follow-up. The high risk for all-cause and cardiovascular death of these patients remained significant after adjustment for various established cardiovascular risk factors in multivariable regression analysis (adjusted hazard ratio 2.4, P < 0.001; compared to patients without diabetes and < 50% carotid atherosclerosis).

Conclusion: Diabetic patients with carotid stenosis ≥ 50% are at exceptional high risk for all-cause and cardiovascular death. Thus, routinely ultrasound investigation of the carotid arteries might be a valuable prognostic tool for patients with diabetes mellitus.