Excess Cancer Cases and Medical Costs Due to Suboptimal Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Coverage in California.

Background: Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination coverage continues to be at low to moderate levels throughout the United States. HPV infection is linked to multiple types of cancers resulting in high economic and health burden. We aimed to estimate the excess number of cancer cases and associated medical costs due to current HPV vaccination coverage for a 20-year-old birth cohort in California.

Methods: We estimated the lifetime number of cancer cases caused by vaccine-preventable strains of HPV for a cohort of 20 year-olds in California. We then estimated the excess number of cancer cases in that cohort which would occur due to 2017 HPV vaccination coverage compared with an optimal coverage of 99.5%. By multiplying those excess cases by the average cost of treatment, we determined the excess cost due to current HPV vaccination coverage.

Results: With current vaccination coverage in California, the 20-year-old cohort is at risk for an excess 1352 cancer cases that could be prevented with a projected optimal vaccination coverage of 99.5%. The excess cost of treatment for those cancer cases would be US $52.2 million. Male oropharyngeal cancer accounts for the greatest projected cost burden US $21.3 million followed by cervical cancer US $16.1 million.

Conclusions: Increased HPV vaccination coverage in California is needed to reduce economic and health burdens associated with cancers caused by HPV infection.