Spatiotemporal analysis and epidemiological characterization of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Libya within a twenty five year period: 1993-2017.

Background: Infection with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is an alarming problem in North African countries, but few studies have analyzed the geographical distribution of the epidemic. Libya, the second largest country in Africa and with the longest coast on the Mediterranean basin facing Europe, has experienced major outbreaks of HIV infection. Since then, no studies have followed up on the burden of HIV infections. To plan interventions and allocate resources, spatial analysis of HIV/AIDS clusters are required in order to identify epidemic foci and trends in the country. The objective of this study was to assess HIV infection clustering and trends in Libya.

Methods: Information on all recorded HIV/AIDS cases during 1993-2017 were extracted from the National Reporting System. A total of 8015 newly diagnosed HIV cases with address information were included. Spatial autocorrelation and spatial-temporal analysis were used to identify HIV clusters. Spatial correlations between cases and socio-demographic factors were determined using spatial regression.

Results: HIV cases steadily increased within the Libyan population, particularly among those aged < 27 years. Spatiotemporal analysis showed marked geographic and temporal variation of HIV infection, particularly during 2005-2012. The risk factors varied from one region to another, and the contribution of injection drug use to infection increased with time. Four clusters in three time periods were identified, three on the Mediterranean coast and one in the south.

Conclusion: HIV is an emerging problem in Libya, particularly among young adults. The infection rate varies greatly among the regions and districts, particularly within certain definable geographical areas. Effective intervention strategies are needed to contain HIV infections, especially within the endemic areas.