Reduced Road Traffic Injuries for Young People: A Preliminary Investment Analysis.

Purpose: Deaths and serious injuries from road accidents remain a serious issue in developing countries, including for young people, for whom they are the largest cause of death. This article provides an assessment of interventions to reduce these deaths and injuries for adolescents in 75 developing countries.

Methods: We draw on new data on deaths and injuries by age, gender, and accident type for the 75 countries and on the road safety experience of developed and, more recently, developing countries. Critical tasks are to identify key interventions in road safety and estimate their impact and cost. We incorporate these impact and cost estimates in a modeling framework to calculate the reduction in deaths and serious injuries achieved out to 2030, relative to the base case. Finally, established methods are used to value the economic and social benefits arising from these reductions, and hence to calculate benefit-cost ratios.

Results: For the unchanged policy case, we estimate that there will be about 3 million deaths and 7.4 million serious injuries from road accidents for persons aged 10-24 years in the 75 countries to 2030. The preferred interventions avert one million of these deaths and 3 million serious injuries, at a cost of $6.5 billion per annum over 2016-2030, or $1.2 per capita across the total population of these countries. After valuing the benefits of the deaths and serious injuries averted, we find a benefit-cost ratio of 7.6 for 2016-2030, but of 9.9 if the interventions continue to 2050.

Conclusions: Proven methods, suitably adjusted to local conditions, are available to reduce the tragic toll of road accidents in developing countries. These initiatives are likely to have strong economic and social returns, and should be given high priority.