Novel risk scoring system for prediction of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy.

Background: The available prediction models for clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) do not incorporate both preoperative and intraoperative variables.

Aim: To construct a new risk scoring system for CR-POPF that includes both preoperative and intraoperative factors.

Methods: This was a retrospective study of patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) or pylorus-preserving PD (PPPD) between January 2011 and December 2016 at the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University. Patients were divided into a study (01/2011 to 12/2014) or validation (01/2015 to 12/2016) group according to the time of admission. POPF severity was classified into three grades: Biochemical leak (grade A) and CR-POPF (grades B and C). Logistic regression was used to create a predictive scoring system.

Results: Preoperative serum albumin ≥ 35 g/L [ = 0.032, odds ratio (OR) = 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.85-0.99], hard pancreatic texture ( = 0.004, OR = 0.25, 95%CI: 0.10-0.64), pancreatic duct diameter ≥ 3 mm ( = 0.029, OR = 0.50, 95%CI: 0.27-0.93), and intraoperative blood loss ≥ 500 mL ( = 0.006, OR = 1.002, 95%CI: 1.001-1.003) were independently associated with CR-POPF. We established a 10-point risk scoring system to predict CR-POPF. The area under the curve was 0.821 (95%CI: 0.736-0.905) and the cut-off value was 3.5. Including drain amylase levels improved the predictive power of the model.

Conclusion: This study established a 10-point scoring system to predict CR-POPF after PD/PPPD using preoperative and intraoperative parameters. Ultimately, this system could be used to distinguish between high- and low-risk populations in order to facilitate timely interventions after PD.