Gender-based violence in New Delhi, India: forecast based on secondary data analysis.

Background: Violence against women is a global phenomenon.

Aims: To estimate and forecast cognizable crime against women in New Delhi, India, from 2016 to 2020.

Methods: Reported cognizable crime against women in New Delhi for 2009-2015 was extracted for statistical analysis, synthesis and modelling. The cognizable crimes reported are rape, attempt to commit rape, kidnapping and abduction, dowry deaths, assault on women with intent to outrage her modesty, insult to modesty of women, cruelty by husband or his relative, importation of girls from foreign countries, abetment of suicide of women and indecent representation of women.

Results: The actual number of registered cases of crime against women ranged from 4251 (2009) to 17 104 (2015). The projected number of cases ranged between 18 991 [95% confidence interval (CI): 13 092-24 889) in 2016 to 28 663 (95% CI: 22 314-35 013)] in 2020. A rising trend in crime against women was noticed in New Delhi, ranging from 204.6 (2016) to 308.8 (2020) per 100 000 women. After witnessing a substantive increase (116.2%) in reported crime against women in New Delhi in 2013, the subsequent actual and projected rise appears to be incremental in nature, with an annual percentage point change ranging between 9% and 18%.

Conclusion: Within limitations, it is concluded that the safety of women will continue to be a concern in the near future.