Modified frailty index predicts medical complications, length of stay, readmission, and mortality following total shoulder arthroplasty.

Hypothesis: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the 5-factor modified frailty index (mFI-5) as a predictor of postoperative complications in patients undergoing total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA).

Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database for patients undergoing TSA between the years 2005 and 2017. The mFI-5 score, which includes the presence of comorbid diabetes, hypertension, congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and functional status, was calculated for each patient. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to assess the relationship between the mFI-5 and postoperative complications.

Results: A total of 18,957 patients undergoing TSA were identified. The mFI-5 was a strong predictor of serious medical complications (cardiac arrest, myocardial infarction, septic shock, pulmonary embolism, postoperative dialysis, reintubation, and prolonged ventilator requirement), discharge to a facility, and readmission (odds ratio ≥ 1.309, P ≤ .001). Length of stay also increased as the mFI-5 score increased (P < .001). However, among all the measured complications, the mFI-5 was the strongest predictor of mortality, with the risk more than doubling for each point increase in the mFI-5 score (odds ratio, 2.113; 95% confidence interval, 1.447-3.086; P < .001).

Conclusion: The mFI-5 predicts serious medical complications, increased length of stay, discharge to a facility, hospital readmission, and mortality in patients undergoing TSA. All of the variables within the mFI-5 are easily obtained through the patient history, allowing for a practical clinical tool that hospitals and surgeons can use to identify high-risk surgical candidates, inform preoperative counseling, and guide perioperative care to optimize patient outcomes.