Nomogram to Predict Overall Survival for Thoracic Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients After Radical Esophagectomy.

Background: Effective tools evaluating the prognosis for patients with esophageal cancer undergoing surgery is lacking. The current study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) and provide evidence for adjuvant therapy for patients with esophageal carcinoma after esophagectomy.

Methods: The study retrospectively reviewed patients with pathologic T1N +/T2-4aN0-3, M0 thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after radical esophagectomy, with or without adjuvant therapy, in one institution as the training cohort (n = 2281). A nomogram was established using Cox proportional hazard regression to identify prognostic factors for OS, which were validated in an independent validation cohort (n = 1437). Area under curve (AUC) values of receiver operating characteristic curves were calculated to evaluate prognostic efficacy.

Results: In the training cohort, the median OS was 50.46 months, and the 5-year OS rate was 47.08%. Adjuvant therapy, sex, tumor location, grade, lymphovascular invasion, removed lymph nodes, and T and N categories were identified as predictive factors for OS. The nomogram showed favorable prognostic efficacy in the training and validation cohorts (5-year OS AUC: 0.685 and 0.744, respectively), which was significantly higher than that of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. The nomogram distinguished OS rates among six risk groups, whereas AJCC could not separate the OS of 2A and 1B, 3C and 3B, or 3A and 2B. Patients with a nomogram score of 72 to 227 were predicted to achieve a 5-year OS increase of 10% or more from adjuvant therapy.

Conclusion: The nomogram could effectively predict OS and aided decision making in adjuvant therapy for patients with thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after esophagectomy.