Blood pressure at age 40 predicts carotid atherosclerosis two decades later: data from the Akershus Cardiac Examination 1950 Study.

Objective: We assessed the impact of a single time-point measurement of SBP, DBP and pulse pressure at the age of 40, on carotid plaque burden, echolucent plaques and carotid intima-media thickness late midlife.

Methods: Individuals participating in two separate studies, 23 years apart, defined our cohort (n = 2714). 'The Age 40 Program', a nationwide Norwegian cardiovascular screening survey, performed 1985-1999, assessed cardiovascular risk factors and lifestyle variables at age 40. 'The ACE 1950 Study', a population-based cohort study on individuals born in 1950, performed 2012-2015, included ultrasound examinations of the carotid arteries. Blood pressure (BP) determinants of carotid atherosclerosis were assessed by regression models adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors at age 40, and late midlife BP.

Results: The participants, 50.3% women, had a mean age of 40 (SD 0.3) years in the first study, and 64 (SD 0.6) years in the second. At age 40, mean SBP was 128 (SD 14) mmHg, mean DBP was 78 (SD 10) mmHg and mean pulse pressure was 50 (SD 9) mmHg. SBP and DBP at age 40 predicted carotid plaque burden in late midlife. Only DBP predicted echolucent plaques, and none of the BP components predicted carotid intima-media thickness.

Conclusion: A single time-point measurement of SBP and DBP at age 40 is associated with carotid plaque burden late midlife, also after adjustment for other cardiovascular risk factors at age 40, and of late midlife BP. Our findings emphasize the strong association between BP and atherosclerosis.