Variation Among Primary Care Physicians in 30-Day Readmissions.

Background: Whether readmission rates vary by primary care physician (PCP) is unknown, although federal policy holds PCPs accountable for reducing readmissions.

Objective: To determine whether 30-day readmission rates vary by PCP.

Design: Retrospective cohort study using marginal models and multilevel logistic regression with 100% of data on Texas Medicare claims from 2008 to 2015.

Setting: Texas.

Participants: Patients discharged alive between 1 January 2008 and 30 November 2015 who had a PCP in the prior year and whose PCP had at least 50 admissions in the study period.

Measurements: Readmission within 30 days of discharge. Follow-up visits with a PCP within 7 days of discharge were also measured.

Results: Between 2012 and 2015, the mean risk-standardized rate of 30-day readmissions was 12.9%. Of 4230 PCPs, 1 had a readmission rate that was significantly higher than the mean and none had a significantly lower rate. The 10th and 90th percentiles of PCP readmission rates were 12.4% and 13.4%, respectively, each only 0.5 percentage point different from the mean. The 99th percentile of PCP readmission rates was 14.0%, 1.1 percentage points higher than the mean. Detecting a 1.1-percentage point difference from the mean adjusted readmission rate would require more than 3500 admissions per PCP per year.

Limitations: Only fee-for-service Medicare patients in a single state were included. The authors could not account for confounders not included in Medicare databases or classify readmissions as avoidable.

Conclusion: Variation in readmission rates among PCPs is very low. Programs holding PCPs accountable for readmissions may prove ineffective.

Primary Funding Source: National Institutes of Health.