A review of issues about null hypothesis Bayesian testing.

Psychol Methods

Department of Psychometrics and Statistics, Faculty of Behavioral and Social Sciences, University of Groningen.

Published: December 2019

AI Article Synopsis

  • Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has faced criticism for its numerous issues, prompting researchers to explore alternatives like Bayes factors for hypothesis testing.
  • The article introduces "null hypothesis Bayesian testing" (NHBT) as a method using Bayes factors but identifies several limitations and misinterpretations related to this approach through reproducible examples.
  • The authors advocate for a greater focus on posterior model probabilities over Bayes factors, as they offer more direct answers to common research questions.

Article Abstract

Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has been under scrutiny for decades. The literature shows overwhelming evidence of a large range of problems affecting NHST. One of the proposed alternatives to NHST is using Bayes factors instead of p values. Here we denote the method of using Bayes factors to test point null models as "null hypothesis Bayesian testing" (NHBT). In this article we offer a wide overview of potential issues (limitations or sources of misinterpretation) with NHBT which is currently missing in the literature. We illustrate many of the shortcomings of NHBT by means of reproducible examples. The article concludes with a discussion of NHBT in particular and testing in general. In particular, we argue that posterior model probabilities should be given more emphasis than Bayes factors, because only the former provide direct answers to the most common research questions under consideration. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/met0000221DOI Listing

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