Impact of climate change on aflatoxin M1 contamination of raw milk with special focus on climate conditions in Serbia.

Background: The impact of climate change has been identified as an emerging issue worldwide owing to potential effects that can provoke changes in the nature and occurrence of food safety hazards. Mycotoxins are a group of naturally occurring toxic substances produced by several genera of filamentous fungi, among which, primarily aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxins, trichothecenes and zearalenone are of the greatest concern owing to their negative impact on human health, animal productivity and international trade.

Results: Extreme weather conditions such as floods and droughts which have not occurred previously in Serbia may be supporting factors for contamination of crops by various species of toxigenic fungi and their related mycotoxins. In this study, principal component analysis (PCA) and multivariate analyses were used as powerful tools allowing better understanding of the range of climate factors impacting on crop contamination by mycotoxins. Among the selected environmental variables, temperature and moisture significantly influenced aflatoxin production. Recent drought and then flooding confirmed that Serbia is one of the few European countries with very high risk exposure to natural hazards, as well as that mycotoxins are one of the foodborne hazards most susceptible to climate change. Thus climate change effects on mycotoxigenic fungi and mycotoxin contamination are now receiving scientific attention, especially from a risk analysis perspective.

Conclusion: This paper evaluates the available information on the influence of climate change on mycotoxin contamination, especially aflatoxin M1 (AFM1). In addition, this investigation should beneficially contribute to more accurate predictions of the regional risk from mycotoxins in future decades. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry.