Parasitism offers large rewards but carries high risks: Predicting parasitic strategies under different life history conditions in lampreys.

The loss of parasitism in metazoan lineages is often seen as unlikely, but it has occurred in some lineages (e.g., leeches, lampreys). How and why parasitism is lost is aptly addressed by studying lampreys, because extant species include a range of feeding modes and parasitism has been lost repeatedly. An individual-based model was developed to determine whether variations in survival and growth rates in the larval and juvenile stages could favour parasitic or nonparasitic strategies. A realization of the model for a Lampetra spp. population, a genus which includes parasitic and nonparasitic animals, indicated that both strategies could be successful. A different model realization of the nonparasitic species Lethenteron appendix also agreed with expectations, and only nonparasitic strategies were successful. Modelling anadromous Petromyzon marinus produced only parasitic animals, as expected, but suggested two different adult sizes should appear in the population, which has not been reported in the literature. Finally, a realization of an Ichthyomyzon castaneus population, known to be parasitic only, rarely selected for parasitism (c. 7% of model iterations), possibly because the population used to parameterize the model was unusual for the species. The results suggest that nonparasitic lineages in lampreys are common because parasitism, while offering better growth, also has lower survival. Additionally, nonparasitic species may be generated at different rates because growth and survival thresholds in the model favouring parasitism are close to observed estimates in some populations. Loss of parasitism can occur when life stages have different trade-offs in growth and survivability.