Personalized prognostication in head and neck cancer: A systematic review of nomograms according to the AJCC precision medicine core (PMC) criteria.

Background: The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Precision Medicine Core (PMC) has recognized the need for more personalized probabilistic predictions above the "TNM" staging system and has recently released a checklist of inclusion and exclusion criteria for evaluating prognostic models.

Methods: A systematic review of articles in which nomograms were created for head and neck cancer (HNC) was carried out according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. The AJCC PMC criteria were used to score the individual studies.

Results: Forty-four studies were included in the final qualitative analysis. The mean number of inclusion criteria met was 9.3 out of 13, and the mean number of exclusion criteria met was 2.1 out of 3. Studies were generally of high quality, but no single study fulfilled all of the AJCC PMC criteria.

Conclusion: This is the first study to utilize the AJCC checklist to comprehensively evaluate the published prognostic nomograms in HNC. Future studies should attempt to adhere to the AJCC PMC criteria. Recommendations for future research are given.

Summary: The AJCC recently released a set of criteria to grade the quality of prognostic cancer models. In this study, we grade all published nomograms for head and neck cancer according to the new guidelines.