High incidence and low case detection rate among contacts of tuberculosis cases in Shanghai, China.

Background: To assess the effect of a contact investigation strategy by assessing the incidence of tuberculosis and the case detection rate among contacts of tuberculosis patients.

Methods: The pulmonary tuberculosis incidence among contacts was determined retrospectively from a tuberculosis information management system. For each detection method (symptom examination only, symptom examination plus chest radiography or other alternatives), the detection rate of pulmonary tuberculosis patients among contacts was derived from contact investigation form records.

Results: Sixty-nine cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were identified among a total of 8137 contacts after an average follow-up of 2.6 years (range: 0.25-5.25) during the period from 2010 to 2014. The incidence density was 329/100,000 person-years (PYs), and the 95% confidence interval (CI) was 256-419/100,000 PYs, which was significantly higher than the notification rate during the same period in the general population (29-30/100,000 PYs). The incidence density was higher (p < 0.0001) among male contacts (462/100,000 PYs) than among female contacts (236/100,000 PYs). The incidence density did not differ (p > 0.05) between contacts whose index case was sputum smear positive and those whose index case was sputum smear negative. Contacts who were biologically related family of the index cases exhibited a higher (p < 0.05) incidence density (475/100,000 PYs) than other contacts (281/100,000 PYs). Fifteen of the 69 incident cases were found through contact investigation, corresponding to a case detection rate via contact investigation of 22% (95% CI: 13-33%). The relevance ratio was 288/100,000 (12/4163) by both chest radiography and symptom survey, which was significantly higher than the rate detected by symptom survey alone, of 57/100,000 (2/3486), p = 0.028. The cumulative incidence in the contacts was 761/100,000 (62/8137) within 3 years from the time that the index cases were diagnosed with pulmonary tuberculosis, which was higher than the incidence rate of 210/100,000 (7/3328) recorded after 3 years (p < 0.001).

Conclusions: The contacts were at higher risk of pulmonary tuberculosis than the general population; however, only approximately 22% of the incident cases could be detected through contact investigation. Therefore, the contact investigation strategy must be improved for better detection of potential pulmonary tuberculosis cases.