Detection of changes and trends in climatic variables in Bangladesh during 1988-2017.

Heliyon

Climate Division, Bangladesh Meteorological Department, Agargoan, Dhaka, 1207, Bangladesh.

Published: March 2019

AI Article Synopsis

  • A study conducted from 1988-2017 in Bangladesh analyzed key climate variables using methods like linear regression and the Mann-Kendall test to identify significant trends and changes.
  • Results show a rise in average monthly maximum temperatures by 0.35 °C/decade and minimum temperatures by 0.16 °C/decade, with notable increases in the temperature range during winter compared to the monsoon season.
  • Wind speed has decreased significantly, especially in the north-west region, while monsoon and annual precipitation have also declined, suggesting a potential link between rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall, warranting further research.

Article Abstract

Due to the importance of climatic variability, an assessment detecting the changes and trends has been carried out over different time series of major climatic variables from the records of meteorological stations over Bangladesh from 1988-2017. Linear regression, the Mann-Kendall test, and Sen's slope method were used to analyze the significant trends and magnitude of the variables' changes, while the Pearson and Spearman rho correlation test have been applied to correlate between the variables. The results show that the average monthly maximum temperature ( ) and minimum temperature ( ) have increased significantly by 0.35 °C/decade and 0.16 °C/decade, respectively. However, the increase in is comparatively higher than and caused significant increases in the monthly temperature range (MTR) at a higher rate in winter than in the monsoon season. The trend patterns of , , and MTR reveal that most of the regions of the country (especially the south-eastern and north-eastern) have been colder during winter and hotter during the monsoon. In contrast, the wind speed (WS) has decreased significantly all over the country and decreased by a higher rate in the north-western (NW) region (monsoon, 0.60 and annual, 0.51 kt/decade) than other regions, while the monsoonal and annual precipitation have decreased by 87.35 mm/decade and 107 mm/decade, respectively. The monsoonal and (0.47 °C/decade and 0.38 °C/decade, respectively) have increased significantly in the NW; consequently, this region has been warmed by 0.27 °C/decade. The increase in temperature and decrease in WS may cause a decrease in rainfall in the NW region. Humidity changes are not significant except in the monsoon season across the country. Precipitation, WS, and humidity are negatively correlated with the temperature variables. The declination of WS may influence the rising trend in temperature and the falling trend in precipitation and humidity, suggesting the need for further advanced study on the negative effects of climate change in Bangladesh.

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Source
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6431730PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e01268DOI Listing

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