Gestational diabetes mellitus and macrosomia predispose to diabetes in the Lebanese population.

Aims: The Middle East has the fastest rising rate of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) worldwide, with Lebanon having 15.8% of its population affected. This study aims at studying Polycystic Ovarian Syndrome (PCOS), Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM), and macrosomia as risk factors of T2DM in Lebanon. Such epidemiological and statistical study has never been conducted before in the Middle East region and would be useful for clinical diagnosis.

Methods: Our cohort is comprised of 1453 Lebanese individuals, with 897 controls and 556 patients. We tested the correlation between T2DM and the covariates GDM, PCOS, and macrosomia independently. We conducted multinomial logistic regression and cross tabulations with T2DM as an outcome.

Results: The results showed a significant association of the independent factors GDM and macrosomia with T2DM. The risk of having T2DM was increased by 4.192 times with the GDM, and by 2.315 times with macrosomia respectively.

Conclusion: In conclusion, GDM and macrosomia, but not PCOS, are significant risk factors for T2DM in our Lebanese cohort. Our results, reported for the first time in the Middle East, present insights into risk factors management and disease prevention.