Incidence of community acquired pneumonia in children aged 2-59 months of age in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, India, in 2016: An indirect estimation.

Introduction: Community Acquired Pneumonia (CAP) is the leading cause of mortality in children younger than five years of age in developing countries, including India. Hence, this prospective study was performed to estimate the incidence of CAP in children (2-59 months)in four districts of Northern India.

Methods: A cross-sectional survey in rural Lucknow was conducted using cluster sampling technique to assess the proportion of CAP cases that were hospitalized in last 12 months (hospitalization fraction). Another prospective study was done to assess number of hospitalized CAP cases in same districts in 2016. For this, a surveillance network of hospitals that admitted children was established. Cases with WHO-defined CAP with less than 14 days of illness were eligible for inclusion. Informed written parental consent was obtained. A mathematical model was developed to estimate the incidence of CAP in each district, taking into account number of cases hospitalized in one year, assuming it to be equal to hospitalization fraction and using Lucknow district as reference, correcting for child-population per hospital for each district. Population census data of 2011 was taken as denominator.

Results: In cross-sectional survey (February to May 2016), 3351 children (2-59 months) from 240 villages were included. Of these 24.58% (824/3351) children suffered from CAP in last 12 months and out of these 4% (33/824) children were hospitalized. Computed incidence of CAP per 1000 child-year for Lucknow was 86.50 (95%CI: 85.72-87.29); Etawah 177.01(95%CI: 175.44-178.58); Patna 207.78 (95%CI: 207.20-208.37) and Darbhanga 221.18 (95%CI: 220.40-221.97). Infants (2-11 months)had almost five to ten times higher incidence of CAP than those in 12-59 months age category.

Conclusions: Incidence of CAP in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar is high, being much higher in infants. Hence there is an urgent need for introduction of preventive strategies, improving health seeking behavior and quality of care for CAP.