Risk Factors for Development of Carbapenem Resistance Among Gram-Negative Rods.

Background: Infections due to carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative rods (CR-GNR) are increasing in frequency and result in high morbidity and mortality. Appropriate initial antibiotic therapy is necessary to reduce adverse consequences and shorten length of stay.

Methods: To determine risk factors for recovery on culture of CR-GNR, cases were retrospectively analyzed at a major academic hospital system from 2011 to 2016. Ertapenem resistance (ER-GNR) and antipseudomonal (nonertapenem) carbapenem resistance (ACR-GNR) patterns were analyzed separately. A total of 30951 GNR isolates from 12370 patients were analyzed, 563 of which were ER and 1307 of which were ACR.

Results: In multivariate analysis, risk factors for ER-GNR were renal disease, admission from another health care facility, ventilation at any point before culture during the index hospitalization, receipt of any carbapenem in the prior 30 days, and receipt of any anti-methicillin-resistant (anti-MRSA) agent in the prior 30 days (c-statistic, 0.74). Risk factors for ACR-GNR were male sex, admission from another health care facility, ventilation at any point before culture during the index hospitalization, receipt of any carbapenem in the prior 30 days, and receipt of any anti-MRSA agent in the prior 30 days (c-statistic, 0.76).

Conclusions: A straightforward scoring system derived from these models can be applied by providers to guide empiric antimicrobial therapy; it outperformed use of a standard hospital antibiogram in predicting infections with ER-GNR and ACR-GNR.