Simple predictors of the re- occurrence of severe febrile neutropenia episode: a single-center retrospective cohort study in pediatric patients with malignant diseases.

Aim: To identify the risk factors of a repeated episode of severe febrile neutropenia (FN) and to build an accurate and easy-to-use predictive model.

Methods: This single-center retrospective cohort study conducted at the Clinical Hospital Center Children's Hospital Rijeka from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2016 included pediatric patients with malignant diseases who experienced at least one FN episode. The association of the second severe FN episode appearance with relevant clinical and laboratory data was analyzed by logistic regression.

Results: Out of 45 patients with one FN episode, 25 (56%) had severe FN and 11 (24%) had repeated severe FNs. Significant predictors of a repeated severe FN episode were the first FN episode duration of 9 or more days and red blood cells ≤3.0×1012/L. The predictive model constructed by crossing these two indicators had the accuracy of 87% (95% confidence interval [CI] 73%-94%), sensitivity of 82% (95% CI 53%-97%), and specificity of 88% (95% CI 79%-93%).

Conclusion: The first FN episode duration and anemia are significantly associated with the risk for severe FN re-occurrence. These factors may be useful in the identification of children with cancer who are at high risk for adverse outcome at any future fever onset and may benefit from early intensive treatment.