AI Article Synopsis
- Paddy fields are significant sources of methane (CH₄) emissions, and climate change influences these emissions by altering crop growth and soil conditions, particularly in Heilongjiang Province, where rice cultivation has expanded significantly.
- A study used weather and ecological models to simulate CH₄ fluxes in Heilongjiang from 1960 to 2080 under different climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), revealing an increasing trend in methane emissions over time, with specific spatial patterns across the region.
- The model projections indicate that factors like CO₂ concentration and temperature changes will impact CH₄ emissions by affecting soil organic carbon and plant biomass, highlighting the role of cold-region
Article Abstract
Paddy fields have become a major global anthropogenic CH₄ emission source, and climate change affects CH₄ emissions from paddy ecosystems by changing crop growth and the soil environment. It has been recognized that Heilongjiang Province has become an important source of CH₄ emission due to its dramatically increased rice planting area, while less attention has been paid to characterize the effects of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamics of CH₄ fluxes. In this study, we used the calibrated and validated Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model and DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model to simulate historical and future CH₄ fluxes under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of four global climate models (GCMs) in Heilongjiang Province. During 1960⁻2015, the average CH₄ fluxes and climatic tendencies were 145.56 kg C/ha and 11.88 kg C/ha/(10a), respectively. Spatially, the CH₄ fluxes showed a decreasing trend from west to east, and the climatic tendencies in the northern and western parts were higher. During 2021⁻2080, the annual average CH₄ fluxes under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were predicted to be 213.46 kg C/ha and 252.19 kg C/ha, respectively, and their spatial distributions were similar to the historical distribution. The average climatic tendencies were 13.40 kg C/ha/(10a) and 29.86 kg C/ha/(10a), respectively, which decreased from west to east. The simulation scenario analysis showed that atmospheric CO₂ concentration and temperature affected CH₄ fluxes by changing soil organic carbon (SOC) content and plant biomass. This study indicated that a paddy ecosystem in a cold region is an important part of China's greenhouse gas emission inventory in future scenarios.
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| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6427409 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16050692 | DOI Listing |
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