In this work, novel application of evolutionary computational heuristics is presented for parameter identification problem of nonlinear Hammerstein controlled auto regressive auto regressive (NHCARAR) systems through global search competency of backtracking search algorithm (BSA), differential evolution (DE) and genetic algorithms (GAs). The mean squared error metric is used for the fitness function of NHCARAR system based on difference between actual and approximated design variables. Optimization of the cost function is conducted with BSA for NHCARAR model by varying degrees of freedom and noise variances. To verify and validate the worth of the presented scheme, comparative studies are carried out with its counterparts DE and GAs through statistical observations by means of weight deviation factor, root of mean squared error, and Thiel's inequality coefficient as well as complexity measures.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.isatra.2019.01.042 | DOI Listing |
Naunyn Schmiedebergs Arch Pharmacol
January 2025
Hannover Medical School, Institute of Pharmacology, D-30625, Hannover, Germany.
The increasing supply shortages of antibacterial drugs presents significant challenges to public health in Germany. This study aims to predict the future consumption of the ten most prescribed antibacterial drugs in Germany up to 2040 using ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) models, based on historical prescription data. This analysis also evaluates the plausibility of the forecasts.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFBMC Public Health
January 2025
Al-Barkaat Institute of Management Studies, Aligarh 202122, Dr. A. P. J. Abdul Kalam Technical University, Lucknow 226010, India.
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide, and its incidence and prevalence are increasing in many countries. Modeling of CVD plays a crucial role in understanding the trend of CVD death cases, evaluating the effectiveness of interventions, and predicting future disease trends. This study aims to investigate the modeling and forecasting of CVD mortality, specifically in the Sindh province of Pakistan.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFSci Rep
January 2025
Grupo de Investigación Ecología y Evolución en los Trópicos-EETrop, Universidad de Las Américas, Quito, Ecuador.
Forecasting insect responses to environmental variables at local and global spatial scales remains a crucial task in Ecology. However, predicting future responses requires long-term datasets, which are rarely available for insects, especially in the tropics. From 2002 to 2017, we recorded male ant incidence of 155 ant species at ten malaise traps on the 50-ha ForestGEO plot in Barro Colorado Island.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFFront Public Health
January 2025
Department of Immunity, Quzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Quzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Background: HFMD is a common infectious disease that is prevalent worldwide. In many provinces in China, there have been outbreaks and epidemics of whooping cough, posing a threat to public health.
Purpose: It is crucial to grasp the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Quzhou and establish a prediction model for HFMD to lay the foundation for early warning of HFMD.
Health Care Sci
December 2024
School of Computer Science and Engineering, Vellore Institute of Technology Vellore India.
Background: The global impact of the highly contagious COVID-19 virus has created unprecedented challenges, significantly impacting public health and economies worldwide. This research article conducts a time series analysis of COVID-19 data across various countries, including India, Brazil, Russia, and the United States, with a particular emphasis on total confirmed cases.
Methods: The proposed approach combines auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)'s ability to capture linear trends and seasonality with long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, which are designed to learn complex nonlinear dependencies in the data.
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