World Trade Organization membership and changes in noncommunicable disease risk factors: a comparative interrupted time-series analysis, 1980-2013.

Objective: To investigate the relationship between joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the availability of several commodities with both harmful and protective effects for the development of noncommunicable diseases.

Methods: We used a natural experiment design to compare trends in the domestic supply of tobacco, alcohol and seven food groups, between 1980 and 2013, in 21 countries or territories joining WTO after 1995 and 26 non-member countries, using propensity score weights. We applied a comparative interrupted time-series framework, by using multivariate random-effects linear models, adjusted for gross domestic product per capita, the percentages of urban population and female labour force participation. In the tobacco model, we controlled for Member States that had ratified the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control and in the alcohol model, the percentage of the population identifying themselves as Muslim.

Findings: Following accession to WTO, member states experienced immediate increases in the domestic supply of fruits and vegetables of 55 g per person per day on average, compared to non-member countries. The analysis showed gradual increases in the geometric mean of the supply of tobacco and alcohol of 6.2% and 3.6% per year, respectively. We did not detect any significant changes in the availability of red meats and animal fats; seafood; nuts, seeds and legumes; starches; or edible oils; and results for sugars were inconsistent across model variations.

Conclusion: The results suggest that WTO membership may lead to increases in both harmful and protective factors for noncommunicable disease, but further exploration of country-specific variation is warranted.