Risk factors for chronic and recurrent pancreatitis after first attack of acute pancreatitis.

Objective: To study the outcome of acute pancreatitis and risk factors for recurrent and chronic pancreatitis in a population based cohort of patients with first-time acute pancreatitis.

Methods: All patients with first-time acute pancreatitis from 2006-2015 in Iceland were retrospectively evaluated. Medical records were scrutinized and relevant data extracted.

Results: 1102 cases of first-time acute pancreatitis were identified: mean age 56yr, 46% female, 41% biliary, 21% alcohol, 26% idiopathic, 13% other causes, mean follow-up 4yr. 21% had ≥1 recurrent acute pancreatitis which was independently related to alcoholic (vs. biliary hazard ratio (HR) 2.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.51-3.46), male gender (HR 1.48, 95%CI 1.08-2.04), and smoking (HR 1.62, 95%CI 1.15-2.28). 3.7% developed chronic pancreatitis. Independent predictors were recurrent acute pancreatitis (HR 8.79, 95%CI 3.94-19.62), alcoholic (vs. biliary HR 9.16, 95%CI 2.71-30.9), local complications (HR 4.77, 95%CI 1.93-11.79), and organ-failure (HR 2.86, 95%CI 1.10-7.42).

Conclusions: Recurrent acute pancreatitis occurred in one-fifth of patients. Development of chronic pancreatitis was infrequent. Both recurrent acute pancreatitis and chronic pancreatitis were related to alcoholic acute pancreatitis, while recurrent acute pancreatitis was associated with smoking and male gender, and chronic pancreatitis to recurrent acute pancreatitis, organ-failure, and local complications.