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Effect of Health-Related Uncertainty and Natural Variability on Health Impacts and Cobenefits of Climate Policy. | LitMetric

Effect of Health-Related Uncertainty and Natural Variability on Health Impacts and Cobenefits of Climate Policy.

Environ Sci Technol

Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering , North Carolina State University, Raleigh , North Carolina 27695 , United States.

Published: February 2019

AI Article Synopsis

  • Climate policy can significantly reduce health risks from air pollution exacerbated by climate change, but current research lacks quantification of these risks and their impacts on policy benefits.
  • Using an integrated modeling approach, the study finds that climate change could lead to significant premature deaths and health issues by 2100, while effective policies could prevent a large portion of these outcomes.
  • The research also highlights the impact of natural climate variability, or "climate noise," which can skew health and economic projections, suggesting that more annual simulations are needed for accurate climate impact assessments.

Article Abstract

Climate policy can mitigate health risks attributed to intensifying air pollution under climate change. However, few studies quantify risks of illness and death, examine their contribution to climate policy benefits, or assess their robustness in light of natural climate variability. We employ an integrated modeling framework of the economy, climate, air quality, and human health to quantify the effect of natural variability on U.S. air pollution impacts under future climate and two global policies (2 and 2.5 °C stabilization scenarios) using 150 year ensemble simulations for each scenario in 2050 and 2100. Climate change yields annual premature deaths related to fine particulate matter and ozone (95CI: 25 000-120 000), heart attacks (900-9400), and lost work days (3.6M-4.9M) in 2100. It raises air pollution health risks by 20%, while policies avert these outcomes by 40-50% in 2050 and 70-88% in 2100. Natural variability introduces "climate noise", yielding some annual estimates with negative cobenefits, and others that reach 100% of annual policy costs. This "noise" is three times the magnitude of uncertainty (95CI) in health and economic responses in 2050. Averaging five annual simulations reduces this factor to two, which is still substantially larger than health-related uncertainty. This study quantifies the potential for inaccuracy in climate impacts projected using too few annual simulations.

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.8b05094DOI Listing

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