AI Article Synopsis

  • Wheat grain protein concentration is crucial for nutrition but often overlooked in crop production improvements.
  • A study using a multi-model ensemble predicts that while increased CO levels might initially boost wheat yields, rising temperatures and altered rainfall patterns will likely negate these benefits, especially in low-rainfall areas.
  • Adapting wheat genotypes to warmer conditions could increase overall yields but may lead to a decrease in grain protein concentration, highlighting the challenge of balancing quantity and quality in wheat production amid climate change.

Article Abstract

Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32-multi-model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low-rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO . Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by -1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of -8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14481DOI Listing

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