Aneurysm rebleeding before therapy: a predictable disaster?

Objective: Current guidelines for subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) include early aneurysm treatment within 72 hours after ictus. However, aneurysm rebleeding remains a crucial complication of SAH. The aim of this study was to identify independent predictors allowing early stratification of SAH patients for rebleeding risk.

Methods: All patients admitted to the authors' institution with ruptured aneurysms during a 14-year period were eligible for this retrospective study. Demographic and radiographic parameters, aneurysm characteristics, medical history, and medications as well as baseline parameters at admission (blood pressure and laboratory parameters) were evaluated in univariate and multivariate analyses. A novel risk score was created using independent risk factors.

Results: Data from 984 cases could be included into the final analysis. Aneurysm rebleeding occurred in 58 cases (5.9%), and in 48 of these cases (82.8%) rerupture occurred within 24 hours after SAH. Of over 30 tested associations, preexisting arterial hypertension (p = 0.02; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.56, 1 score point), aneurysm location at the basilar artery (p = 0.001, aOR 4.5, 2 score points), sac size ≥ 9 mm (p = 0.04, aOR 1.9, 1 score point), presence of intracerebral hemorrhage (p = 0.001, aOR 4.29, 2 score points), and acute hydrocephalus (p < 0.001, aOR 6.27, 3 score points) independently predicted aneurysm rebleeding. A score built upon these parameters (0-9 points) showed a good diagnostic accuracy (p < 0.001, area under the curve 0.780) for rebleeding prediction.

Conclusions: Certain patient-, aneurysm-, and SAH-specific parameters can reliably predict aneurysm rerupture. A score developed according to these parameters might help to identify individuals that would profit from immediate aneurysm occlusion.