[Economic evaluation of different chickenpox vaccination strategies].

Objective: To evaluate the cost/benefit of different vaccination strategies related to chickenpox vaccine.

Methods: The direct economic cost and indirect economic cost caused by chickenpox were obtained through questionnaire survey. The epidemic characteristics of chickenpox in Zhejiang province were studied by literature review. Dynamic model was set up by Matlab software based on the parameters of chickenpox, to predict the incidence trends of chickenpox with different immunization strategies (no vaccination, 1-dose vaccination, 2-dose vaccination) in future 40 years (2017-2056). A cost-benefit analysis was conducted, and the sensitivities of the main parameters were analyzed.

Results: Through the questionnaire survey of 105 cases, the direct and indirect economic cost per case was 506.84 Yuan and 1045.39 Yuan respectively, with the total of 1552.23 Yuan. During the prediction period (40 years), there would be 7.0908 million cases in strategy 2, which was 59.71% less than strategy 1 (17.5989 million cases). Total vaccination costs in strategy 2 were 2.366 billion Yuan, with a total economic gain of 33.741 billion Yuan and benefit/cost ratio (BCR) of 14.26:1. If strategy 3 was adopted, 2.7249 million chickenpox cases would occur, with a decrease of 84.52% compared with strategy 1. Total vaccination costs in strategy 3 was 4.495 billion Yuan, with a total economic gain of 44.309 billion Yuan and BCR of 9.86:1. Analysis showed that the vaccine price was the most sensitive variable, followed by the incidence of chickenpox in the absence of vaccine.

Conclusions: In Zhejiang province, one-dose strategy and two-dose strategy were both cost effective. It is suggested that the chickenpox vaccination should be included in the immunization program in Zhejiang province.