Reward activation in childhood predicts adolescent substance use initiation in a high-risk sample.

Background: Substance use at an early age conveys substantial risk for later substance-related problems. A better understanding of early risk factors could result in more timely and effective intervention. This study investigated the predictive utility of the brain's response to reward anticipation as a risk factor for early substance use initiation.

Methods: Participants were 34 children (25 male) at high risk for alcohol and other substance use disorders from a longitudinal functional magnetic resonance imaging study, scanned at a mean age of 10.5 years (SD = 1.2) when participants were substance-naïve. We used a monetary incentive delay task to examine the hemodynamic response of the nucleus accumbens to gain and loss anticipation. Logistic regression was used to test the hypothesis that these brain response patterns would have predictive utility over and above early externalizing behaviors and family history of substance use disorder, two key risk factors for substance use problems, in differentiating those who initiated substance use before age 16 (n = 18) and those who did not (n = 16).

Results: Greater nucleus accumbens activation during monetary gain anticipation in childhood increased the likelihood of initiating substance use during early adolescence (p = .023). The model that comprised neural data in addition to early externalizing behaviors and family history showed significantly better fit than the model without neural data (χ = 7.38, p = .025).

Conclusions: Heightened gain anticipation activation in the nucleus accumbens may predispose individuals to early substance use, beyond the risk conveyed by other known factors.